On November 5, 2025, voters in California, Virginia, New Jersey, and New York all voted against the Republican Party, resulting in a massive blue wave, where Democrats won many elections because of dissatisfaction with the party in charge. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger defeated the Donald Trump-endorsed Winstone Earl Sears with a greater proportion of the vote than Kamala Harris won in 2024. A similar story occurred in New Jersey. In California, Proposition 50, a proposition with the explicit message of countering the gerrymandering in Texas proposed by Trump. Most surprisingly, Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed socialist, has managed to win the New York gubernatorial election. This is a strong rebuke towards the Republican Party, as people who had previously voted for Trump and the Republican Party in 2024 had to have shifted towards the Democratic Party or did not vote. So how did this happen, and how will this affect the 2026 midterm elections?
Why did Republicans lose so badly? The big elephant in the room (no pun intended) is Donald Trump. Trump’s approval ratings have been in the red in a historic low. For example, in Virginia, a CNN exit poll showed that only 39% of voters approved of Trump’s actions, and 38% voted specifically to oppose Trump. This shows that Donald Trump is a figurehead for what people feel is problematic with the country. Additionally, the issues that the Republican party is traditionally strong at, such as social issues, are not the issues that dominated this election cycle. For example, in the same Virginia poll, although Virginians side with traditionally republican talking points, Republicans lose on the issues voters feel are most important, such as the economy, health care, and education. It is clear that voters think the Republican Party and Donald Trump are out of touch, and something will need to be done about that.
It is most likely that Republicans will show they still represent people by changing their message moving forward. First, they will need to strongly focus on curbing inflation. With near total control over the three branches of the government, they will need to aggressively cut costs on groceries and other consumer goods to reduce inflation; only then can they hammer out their popular issues, like social issues. One way they could do this is by cutting tariffs. While this may be unpopular with parts of Trump’s base, Trump can use deflection methods like using the Supreme Court to strike down the tariffs to shift the blame off himself and the Republican Party. Additionally, although many of Trump’s actions are attention-grabbing, he needs to shift his attention to affordability and jobs, just like he did in 2016; destroying the East Wing to make a ballroom just won’t cut it for a population that is just trying to survive. Not only that, but he needs to tone down some of his rhetoric so that he is less noticeable and isn’t a massive target for the Democrats to shoot in 2026.
Of course, Democrats shouldn’t just stand idly while the Republicans try to regroup. They must use these election results to try to win in 2026. Democrats would be wise to learn a lot from the election of Zohran Mamdani. The United States, which previously was so afraid of the word Communist that it allowed for McCarthyism and all of the horrible things that came with it, voting for a socialist is by no means a small feat. Mamdani got elected not only by appealing to the important issues, such as the economy and education, but also by appealing to younger voters who were turned off by Harris for a variety of reasons. Even if proclaiming oneself as a socialist is likely to fail on the national stage, Democrats need to appeal to the younger generation. They need to put the cost of living front and center for their rhetoric, and really emphasize discussions about the future, since younger people with a life ahead of them are really invested in how current policies will impact the future. They need to put someone younger as their mascot, and emphasize themselves as the party of change. Only this will allow them to regain the young voters that they lost in 2024 in time for reclaiming the House in 2026.
One main limitation is that all of these election results happened either in already blue swing states or blue strongholds, and we don’t know how it will translate to the national stage. But given how the margins swinging blue increased from 2024 in all of these elections, it’s clear that if neither side capitalizes on the lessons learned, the Republicans are not going to have a fun time during the midterms, and if Democrats rest on their laurels, they are in for a nasty shock. But overall, these results are a beacon of hope to a pretty battered Democratic Party, and as long as they keep pushing for a message that resonates with the issues people really face, they have a strong chance for the midterms.
Sources
Staff, CNN. “Exit Polls: Election 2025.” CNN, 4 Nov. 2025, www.cnn.com/election/2025/exit-polls/virginia/general/governor/0.
